Amid confusion about the future trajectory of the war in Iran, the possibility of a continued ceasefire, and the potential implications for the price of oil—and the market in general—it's understandable that many investors may be seeking stability. During a volatile time, it may make sense to turn to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that are designed specifically to have lower volatility.
BEIJING / NEW YORK — In a move that has sent shockwaves through international debt markets, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) have reportedly issued a directive to the nation’s largest state-owned banks, advising a strategic and accelerated reduction in their holdings of
European and international stocks are outperforming as the US trade initiatives seek to rebalance international trade, which will of course be reflected in lesser need for USD (capital account reflection).
Rising US bond prices have offset the slide in US equities so far this year, but the outlook for fixed income may be more precarious than the current rear-window perspective suggests.
Looking at the determinants makes one understand why the estimated recession likelihood is high. That said, aside from consumption, there’s been little sign of a recession in contemporaneous, hard-data indicators.
The surge in macro uncertainty related to tariffs, including the possibility of a global trade war, has complicated the Fed’s already difficult task of setting interest rates to accommodate an unknown future.
The US stock market fell on Thursday, Mar. 13, closing 10.1% below its previous peak, a decline that many analysts define as a “correction,” which is a slide ranging from 10% to 20%.
The Federal Reserve may continue to be patient before deciding on the next change in monetary policy, but the Treasury market isn’t waiting and has been rapidly adjusting to changing expectations for the economy.
